Friday, August 13, 2010

Guesstimates on August 13, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: The 1050-60 range is now my downside target. Today's range estimate is again 1068-1088. I still think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.

QQQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. The market bounced off of 44.50 support yesterday but there is still no sign of a low in the making. Short term downside target is now 43.50

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Long term support is at 3.85%. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. The 2.65% level now looks like support. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is now at 85.50.

September Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.

SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 470 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


Unknown said...

Really think that we will see another attemp in eurusd to those levels around 1,35-1,40??

Jackn3 said...

Carl How come you never go Short?

Nav said...

Very tempting guess estimates...1083, wanted to short but will refrain.Now 1079.50.
I will try to go through maximum blogs on weekend as I want to cover at least 20 years back to date.
Have a wonderful ,the best one can imagine week-end w/your loved ones.
We need YOU so very much!
I am so very proud to learn from you.
God BLESS You!

Win said...

I think so. But 1.26-1.27 first. GL!

Yāvar said...

I think 10300 is a strong support for Dow Jones.

Nav said...

1070 was the bottom for me for es-f!
I always follow Carl when opinion differs and that saves me.
Thanks all for sharing views,it helps!

Rajeev Bharol said...

How do you decide if it is a bull market or a bear market?

Joseph said...

P&F analysis states if 10250 breaks, then downside is 10100

Take care

ga said...

Ok Carl, now that your target is 1050-1060, do you give up your bull bias if the market drops to 1040 or 1030??

As the other guy asked, do you ever go short?

Nav said...

Talk of a “double dip” recession getting louder.Recession a significant probability sometime within the next two years (although not
likely in the next few months); new research published by the San Francisco Fed this week– “LEI forecast trends indicate that the macroeconomic outlook is likely to deteriorate progressively starting sometime next summer, even if the data suggest that a renewed recession is unlikely over the next several months”
I spent 16+ hours on wk end going through old blogs.. Love to learn from you.
Tried hard to reach close to your range,lowest to me is 1057 now.Of course.I'll go w/your range.
Thank you ,Sir.