Thursday, August 12, 2010

Guesstimates on August 12, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: The ES has already dropped 50 points from its high but the decline shows no sign of being complete. The 1050-60 range is now my downside target. Today's range estimate is 1068-1088. I still think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.

QQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. Short term downside target is now support is now 44.50

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Long term support is at 3.85%. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. The 2.65% level now looks like support. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is now at 85.50.

September Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.

SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 470 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


raven said...

Carl, I think your right I think the bears are being set up for more pain.

Edwin said...

Watch VIX carefully. Based on my studies, if it rises ABOVE the 50 day SMA (currently at 26.80), selling will intensify.

tempo said...

The rally above 1200 will happen before the Nov elections. Deflation will materialize if the FED/Treasury reduce stimulus, which is very unlikely. The Tuesday announcement was weak (only $18 billion MBS reinvestment in Sept) so expect another larger move in the coming weeks triggering the next move up.

Yāvar said...

It seems that we have already seen the bottom.

sandy allred said...

SPY bounced off strong support @ 107.60 . Dollar bounce appears spent. Adjusted SPY target is 113.28 on August 26...nice and boring.

Edwin said...

More technical damages done today...

SPX gave up on the 50 Days SMA.

Also, we have a MACD bearish cross pointing to (very likely) weakness ahead.

The trend is clearly down for now.

I continue to heed to Carl's advice on the trading range. Thanks.

Trading The Charts said...

having missed the last 5 big points down i've gone long crude 75.81.

Nav said...

After 1:40 pm in London, any time you post g.estimates.The ultimate
success is in 100% following you.
There came times when I felt stopped fresh shorting and saw covering too.
I am always safe with you.Thanks.

Win said...$MSEMF:$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p32120037258&a=190325949

Win said...

Sorry - posted a chart without explanation. The Emerging Markets are not leading this selloff and they are not exacerbating it. That suggests to me that this is a pullback in a bull market.

ga said...

Carl, PLEASE PLEASE answer I need to know!! At what point do you say, "oops I was wrong and we are heading lower and not higher"?

Is it SPX 1010, 975, 850 where? Or do you just always maintain your 1300+ target and don't worry if the SPX goes to 700 first?

Your daily posts are great and meaningful especially when I ignore your long term bias.

Thank you for any answers as I am sure it will help me better understand your thinking!

Rajeev Bharol said...

"Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240."

how do you decide if it is a bull or a bear market.

50 DMA has crossed 200 recently and it is bearish. Isn't it? It happened in early 2008 last time.

Nav said...

I saw 1078-1079 real buying.My all indicators were green and now it is 1088.
I have a strong feeling that 1070 was the bottom.Desperately waiting for
Dr.Carl's ultimate dependence.
Thank you Win and all for sharing insights.
Stay Safe!

Nav said...

7:56am in London selling massively
happened@1087.25-1088.50,Carl is always right!
78-79 was short covering then.