Wednesday, June 03, 2009

Wave chart

Here is the e-mini wave chart for the day session today. I got long on the initial break. The market dropped a little below the low of my original estimated range for today which was 930-950. I was expecting a good rally on reasonable volume for the time of day to begin after that break. Instead the market drifted upward on low volume, barely retracing half of the initial break. By the time this rally seemed to peter out the market had spent the entire session thus far trading below its open (dotted red line). These were not bullish signs for the rest of the day.

Consequently I have revised my range estimate for today to 922-936. A drop to 922 would make the break from yesterday's high of 949 equal in size to the break from the May 27 top at914.00 (electronic) to the May 28 low at 886.50. Once this reaction is complete I shall be looking for a move into the 965-980 range.

3 comments:

maria said...

www.marketkarma.blogspot.com anticipates sell off in XLF, financial holder, but longer term still higher. Do you have any views on this sector?

Teich said...

Hi Carl.

Nice blog.

Since you mentioned price versus volume a lot, do you look at indicators such as money flow or VWAP (volume-weighted average price)?

Thanks.

John M said...

If we haven't seen a two-week or more high today, I think we will very soon. I peg 820-850 as the downside target over the next couple of weeks, and a nice, big, long rally after that.

We'll see how it plays out.