Thursday, July 09, 2009

11 am update

Here is a 5 minute bar chart of today's e-mini day session. I got long on the reaction from the opening (red dotted line) figuring that it would be brief and that the market would quickly rally above its opening level. Instead the e-minis have spent the first 90 minutes of the session trading below the open. This is a sign of weakness and tells me that I may have to revise my range estimate (blue rectangle) - the probability that we have seen the high of the day is increasing. However, I am going to defer such a revision until I see selling activity below yesterday's close at 873.

No matter what happens the rest of the day I think yesterday's low will hold, or at worst be broken by a couple of points. I think this market is stabilizing, building a base that will support a move up to 965-980.


Jammer said...

Curious as to your view on the widely observed H&S tops? Your view that 965-980 is a target would negate the H&S formation. Am I interpreting that correctly? Love your daily posts.

Ron said...

OMO.......Up now into 1:00 pm ish.

John M said...

Hi, Carl--Have to think we're still going into the low 800s over the next couple weeks, but there's no guarantee of anything in the market. I'm leaning in the direction of your early post today, still seems like we should surpass 88425 before going below 865. But if you say weakness, it gets my attention. Thanks for the guideposts, as usual.

Kishore said...

Carl, if the down wave that started from 956 on June 11 was the first one, and as the second wave up to 927 was a poor retracement, it appears that we have not yet seen full unleashing of the third wave down.

We should be going down a lot more than 865.