Thursday, July 16, 2009

Update

Here is a five minute bar chart of day session e-mini trading covering the past couple of weeks.

My range estimate for today is still 915-935 (blue rectangle). I still think this market has a good shot at 935 over the next hour or two, but I also think a break of about 15 points, the same size as the last significant reaction (purple rectangles) is likely to begin from today's high.

There is no midpoint support in the 915-920 zone. But I see a steep trend channel up from the 965 low which crosses the 915-20 zone late today and early tomorrow. My best guess is that the upcoming reaction will find its low near one of the two lower channel line I have drawn.

I think the e-minis are in the very early stages of a strong uptrend which will last into October and carry the market well above the 1000 level during that time.

8 comments:

extrader said...

that 10pt gap on the chart will need to be filled sometime...

John M said...

I read somewhere (yesterday?) that finishing the week around 910 would cause the greatest amount of pain for the greatest number of people in the options market. This number has probably changed since, perhaps to the upside, where it would meet up with Carl's pullback zone.

Highly unscientific, but it's funny how often that 'greatest pain' thing comes true on expiration day.

Maxwell said...

Carl,
It's about 90 mins since you posted your update and the market just hit new highs...are you still thinking this market will sell off today?

extrader said...

SHORT 932 ES

Maxwell said...

s&p is at 936.5.. I am in disbelief of this rally... I really thought we would see a pullback like Carl had suggested and held off buying anything...

extrader said...

SHORT 934 ES - SECOND

THIS IS GOING DOWN BIGTIME!!!

Maxwell said...

That is what I keep thinking and Carl did agree but we're not seeing it...yet.... I just went short but nervous about that decision with the resilience of the market.

E said...

Learn to read the charts like CF does and forget about our "opinion" of where it is going...

Excellent analysis as usual Mr. Futia.

Thank you.