Friday, July 31, 2009

Guesstimates on July 31, 2009

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 975-990. I think the rally will carry the e-minis well over the 1000 level over the next few months.

QQQ: I expect to see 40.50 before a modest reaction begins.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Support is at 4.20%. I think a swing to above the 5.00% level is underway.

TNX (ten year note yield): Support is at 3.25%. I think a swing up to 4.30% is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: There is no sign of a top. Support is at 137.50 and I think the market will continue upward to 146.00.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has reached the 92.50 downside target and soon will begin a move up to 105.00.

September Crude: I am going to stay bullish for a move to 76 until and unless weakness below the 62.50 level develops.

GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 900.

SLV - September Silver: Silver is headed to 1700. Support is at 1250.

Google: Support is at 395. Next upside target is 500.

7 comments:

unleaded said...

Carl, I would obliged to you if you could explain what happened at 15.30. There are two very large bars, very bearish and this shows in my local index too, with HUGE volume.

Kishore said...

Today marks the breakdown of the negative correlation between USD and the equities market. The market is no longer going up though the USD is crashing.

Moreover, the actual contribution by investors to the already very small volume, during the rally from March 9, was less than 30% of what we see, because the rest of it was due to the front-running computers trading for a 1/4 of a penny rebate from the exchange and a penny or so in profit.

The real market technicals are as weak as the fundamentals.

snp500 said...

Wow... EXCELLENT range estimates the past few days, sir.

F&H Painting said...

Carl,

I would appreciate your comments regarding SLV. Will we see a lower low than that of 7/29 or, with today's strong showing, is it up to 17 from here?

Thank you

Fred

Adsense said...

carl
i see the bullish picture so i dont want to leave you thinking im one sided bearish . but looking at the nasdaq 100 and digging through lindsays notes there is a cae to be made that we are at or very near a point 23 of a minor 3 peaks domed house pattern , while counting 7 months 10 days from point 4 is rare there are a few examples of it . when looking at the nyse composite ( nya ) there is a mid section count im digging through yet have not figured it out at this point . my cycles work calls for a top between aug 6th to the 16th . so the counts are begining to matter .
good luck
joe

Adam said...

Last year the correlation between equities and currencies was relatively clear. This year it has gotten more confusing, I believe, especially with regard to recent movements in the dollar and the

gold price
wor

twocents said...

Yen and T Bonds still trade fairly closely.