Wednesday, July 01, 2009

Revised range estimate

Here is a five minute chart showing today's e-mini day session trading. The market shook me out of my long position this morning. I thought it was heading back to the low of my original range estimate at 915. Instead it pulled an immediate U-turn and made new highs for the rally from the 884 low. This is a sign of strength so I am revising today's range estimate to 919-938 (blue rectangle).

The biggest break on the way up from yesterday's 908 low was six points and occurred this morning in electronic trading. A break or similar size from the high thus far today would end near 922 (purple rectangle). This level is also midpoint support derived from the reaction after the news this morning (purple dotted line).


Win said...

Thanks again for posting all trades, Carl! It helps us see your humanity, and accept our errors. You're the man!

John M said...

This is a very tricky market, and Carl's record in it is a testament to his analytical and money management skills.

For those interested in such things, the chart patterns to the downside look more regular and complete than those to the upside. This jibes with volume (down moves surpassing up moves with regularity). Still, those are only two considerations out of many, and Carl sure seems to have a good handle on the overall picture these days!