Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Revised range estimate

Here is a five minute bar chart of today's e-mini day session. I have slightly revised my range estimate for today to 892-910 (blue rectangle). If this market is going to get close to 910 today I think it will hold midpoint support at the dotted purple line. If this support fails then I would expect a drop to 890-92 followed by a rally to 900. But in this latter case I think we would then have already seen the high for today.


Enky Nakamura said...

Carl, i compared this year vix and sp500 chart with previous years charts. The 2003 is very similar to 2009 both for the spx and the vix index. I expect a bullish 2009 and i agree with you that this rally could extend to september, after it maybe 1 or 2 months of weakness and a bullish december.

TradingNuggets said...


Are you getting concerned over that econ and consumer debt getting worse that we may have reached an intermediate top in the market?

Or, as your book suggests: Climb the Wall of worry... the contrarian view?


Kishore said...

"Climb the wall of worry"! Does it not apply to a bull market?

We have been in bear market. The rally up from March 9 is corrective bear market rally and not a bull market rally. Here, watching out for a "Fall with the waterfall" may be more relevant!

PM said...

Dear Kishore,

Kindly provide some logical basis for your "prediction," thanks.