Friday, July 10, 2009

Guesstimates on July 10, 2009

September S&P E-mini Futures: I think the market is building a base in the 865-885 zone and I want to be a buyer again near the low edge of that zone. Today's day session range will be 865-880. The e-minis are in the early stage of a move which will carry into the 965-80 zone.

QQQ: Support is at 34.00. The next upside target is 39.90.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Support is at 4.20%. The next big move will be a swing upward in yield to above the 5.00% level.

TNX (ten year note yield): Support is at 3.25. I think that the next swing up is about to begin and should take the yield on the notes to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: There is no sign of a top. Support is at 137.50 and I think the market will continue upward to 146.00.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has reached the 92.50 downside target and soon will begin a move up to 105.00.

August Crude: The trend in crude oil is now downward and will carry the market as least to the 55.00 level. Resistance above the market is at 65.00.

GLD – August Gold: Support at 920 was broken. I want to give this uptrend the benefit of the doubt so I will wait for weakness below 900 before I conclude that the market is headed much lower.

SLV - September Silver: Silver is headed to 1700. Support is at 1250.

Google: Support is at 395. Next upside target is 500.


PM said...

Hi Carl,

On 7/02/2009 09:02:00 AM I posted here that a close below 904.50 on Monday will be a confirmed sell signal. Well, we had that signal confirmed.

Now, close today below 860.40 or on Monday below 869.90 or on Tuesday below 880.70 will be another MAJOR confirmed sell signal.


Kindest regards,


Kishore said...

PM, nothing is confirmed in this market. I see no common or general logic in your "predictions" based on four different happening ORed together.

However, I do agree that a breakdown of 865 would mean that we will be testing another lower support level. Anything else is pure speculation.

Regards and Happy trading!

PM said...

Hi Kishore,

You see "no common or general logic in your "predictions" based on four different happening ORed together."

I wouldn't doubt that. Primitive man saw no common or general logic in the movement of the sun and the moon until they were able to understand the basic laws of motion and physics.

Enjoy the day.

Best regards,


Win said...

I appreciate your posts here, just as I appreciate Carl's. Thank you for putting up your views.

Kishore said...

PM, we are here to trade the market and definitely not to trade insults with each other.

But if you make an assertion about the market, please do back it up with your reasons, so we can all understand your line of thinking.


PM said...


Most people would consider being told their comment is illogical would be an insult.

In fact, I made no "predictions," as you called it. I said that if the market closes below specifics prices, then we'll have a major sell signal. Of course, this is according to my model which is highly reliable. I never predicted that the market would close anywhere, only IF.

My reasons are too complicated to detail here and my model is private, but suffice it to say that my model is mathematically based and is highly logical and very profitable. My last sell signal was posted here on 6/16/2009 12:55:00 PM with a close below 924.60. A break of those particular price levels posted here today would give me another sell signal.

My model had a sell signal at 1285.10 several months ago, and so on.

Good day.