Monday, July 20, 2009

At 10:50 am

Here is a five minute bar chart of day session e-mini trading. My range estimate for the day is 935-950 (blue rectangle). There should be pretty strong support at 935-36 for three reasons.

First, the short term green dotted trend line will enter that zone in an hour or so. Second, the midpoint of Friday's reaction is 936 (dotted purple line). Third, a reaction from today's high that equals the size of Friday's reaction would carry to 935.50.

I think this market is very strong and that we are still in the early stages of a move that will carry the S&P well over the 1000 level.


Narayana said...

It's funny, on the one hand, the market charts look so bullish from a technical analysis perspective, but on the other hand, the bullish sentiment we're seeing could ultimately the market's downfall.

Check out my charts and analysis at:

Ron said...

Most helpful explanation. Thanks Carl.

extrader said...

SHORT 941.50 ES

PM said...

Hi Carl,

I may actually be more bullish than you are long term, but according to my model a close today below 952.50 will give me a confirmed sell signal. If this happens, I cannot imagine the selling be deep, but my model is smarter than I am, so I do have to regard the warning.


Kindest Regards,


extrader said...


extrader said...

This market is about to turn to the downside... Rally is over!

extrader said...


Kishore said...

Right now we are in strong up trend.

Trend changes go through a regular process, first a decline and then a follow up with a failed retest. In short, there will be plenty of opportunity to go short.

extrader, I too feel like joining you but I don't believe in guessing the top.

Incidentally, are you planning to be an ex trader, because the potential of a upward breakout, with no resistance for a long hike, can be devastating for shorts? Is there any point in taking this kind of a risk?