Thursday, July 02, 2009

Guesstimates on July 2, 2009

September S&P E-mini Futures: I am again going to give the up trend the benefit of the doubt today. I see pretty good support at 903. High volume selling below that level would convince me that the e-minis are headed down to 870. Meantime I will stick with my bullish short term bias. I estimate today's day session range will be 903-913. Markets in the US are closed tomorrow so today probably will be dull and narrow.

QQQ: Support is at 35.00. The next upside target is 39.90.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): From its December ’08 low at 2.52% the yield on the long bond rallied to 4.83% on June 10. Support is at 4.20%. The next big move will be a swing upward in yield to above the 5.00% level.

TNX (ten year note yield): From its December ’08 low at 2.04% the 10 year yield rallied to 4.01% on June 10. Support is at 3.40 and the next swing should take the yield on the notes to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: There is no sign of a top. Support is at 137.50 and I think the market will continue upward to 146.00.

Dollar-Yen: The yen will probably drop to 92.50 and then begin a move up to 105.00.

August Crude: Support is at 68.00. We think the market is forming a top in the 70-75 range and that the next substantial move will be downward.

GLD – August Gold: The market is headed for new highs near the 1050 level. Support is at 920.

SLV - September Silver: Silver is headed to 1700. Support is at 1330.

Google: Support is at 395. Next upside target is 500.


PM said...

Hi Carl,

My market model tells me that a close below 904.50 on Monday will be a confirmed sell signal, we could actually see that happen today.

Have a safe and happy 4th, let's all thank our veterans.


Kindest regards,


PM said...

By the way, a very excellent call on the crude oil.


Kindest regards,


Jeff said...

It's holiday time. The volume should be light today, so I don't see a push too low. If we do push low under support, and the volume does not coincide, we going to see a resumption on Monday of this chop.