Thursday, July 09, 2009

Guesstimates on July 9, 2009

September S&P E-mini Futures: I think that support at 867 will hold and that the e-minis are in the early stage of a move which will carry into the 965-80 zone. I estimate today's day session range will be 873-890.

QQQ: Support is at 34.00. The next upside target is 39.90.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): From its December ’08 low at 2.52% the yield on the long bond rallied to 4.83% on June 10. Support is at 4.20%. The next big move will be a swing upward in yield to above the 5.00% level.

TNX (ten year note yield): From its December ’08 low at 2.04% the 10 year yield rallied to 4.01% on June 10. Support at 3.40 was broken yesterday, but I still think that the next swing up is about to begin and should take the yield on the notes to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: There is no sign of a top. Support is at 137.50 and I think the market will continue upward to 146.00.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has reached the 92.50 downside target and soon will begin a move up to 105.00.

August Crude: The trend in crude oil is now downward and will carry the market as least to the 55.00 level. Resistance above the market is at 67.00.

GLD – August Gold: Support at 920 was broken yesterday. I want to give this market the benefit of the doubt so I will wait for weakness below 900 before I conclude that the market is headed much lower.

SLV - September Silver: Silver is headed to 1700. Support is at 1250.

Google: Support is at 395. Next upside target is 500.

1 comment:

Market Karma said...

Carl, how do you reconcile stocks headed higher, the USD headed lower (according to EURUSD going higher) with oil headed lower? Lower oil with a weaker USD and stronger stocks would disrupt positive vs. negative risk appetite correlations we have grown accustomed to. I actually see oil as encountering critical support right about now which is to say that I think the correlations will persist as I also think stocks continue up. MK