Wednesday, July 01, 2009

Guesstimates on July 1, 2009

September S&P E-mini Futures: Yesterday's sell shock was a false alarm. All of the wide range put in by the sellers yesterday has been retraced in early morning electronic trading. Today I think we shall see a day session range of 915-930. The e-minis are on the way into the 965-80 zone.

QQQ: Support is at 35.00. The next upside target is 39.90.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): From its December ’08 low at 2.52% the yield on the long bond rallied to 4.83% on June 10. Support is at 4.20%. The next big move will be a swing upward in yield to above the 5.00% level.

TNX (ten year note yield): From its December ’08 low at 2.04% the 10 year yield rallied to 4.01% on June 10. Support is at 3.40 and the next swing should take the yield on the notes to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: There is no sign of a top. Support is at 137.50 and I think the market will continue upward to 146.00.

Dollar-Yen: The yen will probably drop to 92.50 and then begin a move up to 105.00.

August Crude: Support is at 68.00. We think the market is forming a top in the 70-75 range and that the next substantial move will be downward.

GLD – August Gold: The market is headed for new highs near the 1050 level. Support is at 920.

SLV - September Silver: Silver is headed to 1700. Support is at 1330.

Google: Support is at 395. Next upside target is 500.

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