Thursday, July 16, 2009

Near high of day


Here is a five minute chart of e-mini trading over the past two day sessions. In my last post two hours ago I said that I thought the market still had a good shot at the top of my range estimate (blue rectangle) at 935 within the subsequent hour or two. The e-minis are within a point of 935 as I write this and I see a small volume climax bar on this chart (red oval) near the high.

My best guess is that the market will stall near 935 and then break 15-20 points. A 15 point break (purple rectangle) would be as big as the biggest reaction on the way up from the 865 low.

5 comments:

Maxwell said...

As always Carl, thanks again. Your insight and comments are greatly appreciated.

extrader said...

SHORT 936 ES - LAST ONE

AVERAGE IS 934 STOP IS AT 940...

John M said...

In support of Carl's call for a break, momentum has been dropping since we were at around 900 earlier this week. This is often a useful signal on a daily, 120-minute or even a 60 min. chart, depending on your trading timeframe.

Kishore said...

On tick charts, the volume per tick was high in the morning while the prices were flat. This indicates that institutional traders were active in the morning, distributing.

The volume per tick was low this afternoon as the prices went up and peaked out. This indicates that the retail investor was buying in at the top.

Despite the rise in prices, today was a distribution day.

writersblock said...

Kishore, why wouldn't they wait until the afternoon to do their distributing? Would think they'd figure retail was chomping at the bit to move it higher.