Monday, July 16, 2007

Guesstimates on July 16, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: The market has nearly reached the short term upside targets of 1570 for the S&P’s and 155.50 for the Spiders. I think we shall see some sort or reaction of perhaps 20-25 S&P points develop from here, but I also expect to see the S&P’s trade well above the 1600 level later this year.

QQQQ: The Q’s have nearly reached the short term target at 50.00. Support is at 49.00. Next upside target is 53.00.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds are headed to 108-20. Support in TLT is at 83.00 and the next rally should carry it to 86.50.

September 10 Year Notes: The next upside target for the notes is still 106-16. I think the market will rally at least 3 or 4 points from its low at 103-21.

Euro-US Dollar: So far resistance at 137.80 is stalling the market but any strength above that level will mean that the market will continue up to 140.00

Dollar-Yen: Next upside target for the yen is 125.50. Support is at 120.70. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude: I think crude is heading up to 76.20. XLE should rally further to 76 and OIH should hit 190. USO should move up to 56.50.

GLD - August Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. August gold should hold resistance at 665 and drop below 600.

SLV - September Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120. September silver should stall at resistance near 1330 and then head below the 1200 level.

Google: Google reached the short term target of 552 Friday but its up move as yet shows no sign of ending. My best guess is that my long standing 564 target will prove to be too conservative and that Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.


Anonymous said...


Again, the analysis and forecasts you provide are excellent. I look forward to reading your comments each morning.

When time permit, would you please provide an 3-peaks and domed hour update for the S&P500 (similar to the recent Dow update).

Also, you continue to be bear (at least short-term) on gold and silver. What would have to occur to change your analysis?


Anonymous said...

hi carl:

i have posted a couple of times asking you this.

a couple of weeks ago, you posted you expect NAZ to be range bounded between 2650-2750 until we see a steep correction equal to the one we had in march..

are you still expecting that or do you think NAZ might be headed higher?

also, what are you expectations on S&P for the next months since we have hit 1553 on S&P? thanks very much