Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Guesstimates on July 24, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: The rally yesterday to 1555 resistance in the S&P’s looks like a second lower top relative to the July 16 top. This makes me believe that support near 1535 will not hold. If it is broken in any significant way the market will drop all the way to 1500 or so before the next rally can begin. Once the break is over I shall be expecting a move to 1596 and 158.50 respectively.

QQQQ: Support is at 49.00. Next upside target is 53.00.

TLT - September Bonds
: The bonds have reached the short term target aqti 108-20 but should hold support near 107-28. Next upside target is 109-16 and there the rally from 104-16 is likely to end. Support in TLT is at 85.50 and the upside target is 86.50.

September 10 Year Notes: The notes have reached the 106-16 target but should continue a bit further to 107-08 before the rally ends. Support is at 105-20.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance at 137.80 is still stalling the market but any strength above that level will mean that the market will continue up to 140.00

Dollar-Yen: Next upside target for the yen is 125.50. Support is at 119.80. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: It looks like resistance near 76.20 has stalled crude oil and I think the next substantial move from here will be downward to the 66.00 level. XLE has reached 76 and OIH has reached 190 and both should turn down from here. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.

GLD - August Gold: I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50. It now looks like August gold will make it up to 695 before heading downward once more.

SLV - September Silver
: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120. September silver should stall at resistance near 1370 and then head below the 1200 level.

Google: I think the market will next find support near 497 and then resume its rally. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.


MS said...

Today the $ sliced below the decades long 80 handle support. So the Aug gold still has resistance at 685 with only 695 potential? Seems like the targets should be revised, no??

Anonymous said...

"...drop all the way to 1500 or so before the next rally can begin. Once the break is over I shall be expecting a move to 1596..."

Sounds like you're looking for an upside blowoff because timewise it feels like the 9th inning.

The mkt is not responding to good news & is punishing bad news AND there is no follow-thru to upside breakouts.


LowTax said...

On the other hand, commercials haven't had a bigger long position in 10 years. Better think about who's buying the shares you're unloading in the "9th inning".