Friday, July 20, 2007

Guesstimates on July 20, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: The market yesterday traded in a narrow range just below its previous top and I also don’t like the looks of the advance-decline oscillators at the moment. For these reasons I think the market is about to take another trip down, probably to 1535 in the futures and 152.50 in the Spiders. Once the break is over I shall be expecting a move to 1596 and 158.50 respectively.

QQQQ: Support is at 49.00. Next upside target is 53.00.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds are headed to 108-20. Support in TLT is at 83.00 and the next rally should carry it to 86.50.

September 10 Year Notes: The next upside target for the notes is still 106-16. I think the market will rally at least 3 or 4 points from its low at 103-21.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance at 137.80 is stalling the market but any strength above that level will mean that the market will continue up to 140.00

Dollar-Yen: Next upside target for the yen is 125.50. Support is at 120.70. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude
: Crude is getting close to the 76.20 target. XLE should rally further to 76 and OIH still has a shot at 190. The 57.80 level now looks like the ceiling for USO.

GLD - August Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 66. I think 675 resistance is ending the rally in gold.

SLV - September Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120. September silver should stall at resistance near 1330 and then head below the 1200 level.

Google: Google dropped below 532 support after the close yesterday on the earning’s news. I think the market will next find support near 497 and then resume its rally. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.

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