Tuesday, July 24, 2007

S&P's, Spiders, and QQQQ's

Here are hourly charts of the September S&P e-mini futures, the Spiders, and the QQQQ's. I last commented on these markets here.
So far the futures have held support at 1535 but I don't like the technical situation.
The market has put in two lower tops since the July 16 high. There has been no bounce from what should be strong support near 1535. Moreover, today's advancing issues number (so far) is the lowest seen in more than six weeks, a situation which suggests that the drop is gathering steam rather than slowing down. For these reasons I think that the futures are about to continue their reaction and drop down to what I think is the next significant support level near 1500. The Spiders should reach 149.00 and the Q's (which have been strong than the S&P) will probably hold the 49.00 level.
I still think that the bull market which started from the 768 S&P low in 2002 is not yet complete. The next leg up should carry the futures to 1596, the Spiders to 158.50 and the Q's into the 53-55 range.


Anonymous said...

At what level would the s&p have to fall to for you to say that the recent high was point #23 and the top was in?
Thanks and I love your work.

Anonymous said...

If you are predicting a final top left in the market, I might have to agree with you. But, I do not think it is a gurantee.

I also think we will soon be looking at a big correction or possibly even a bear market. If you are using real money out here I think you need to be careful. Personally I am up 34% from last January and I am calling this bull market at an end for me.

If Carl is right and we do get a final peak I might go short, but I would not do that now. The risks both up and down seem rather significant to me right now.

Anonymous said...

If you have not already noticed, he doesn't entertain questions on which point of the house we are at.. or the conditions for moving to certain point.. so, for pete's sake, just quit asking.. he's put it up in the fullness of time.