Monday, July 30, 2007

Guesstimates on July 30, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: Late Friday the S&P’s dropped below the 1465-70 support zone. I think we shall see a 30-40 point rally and then a move a little lower to perhaps the 1435 level. The corresponding target in the Spiders will be 143.00. Once this reaction is complete I believe that the stock market will rally to new bull market highs.

QQQQ: Support is at 47.60. Next upside target is 53.00.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds should soon begin an extended drop to 103 or so. The 110-00 level is strong resistance. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.

September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 107-24 and should soon begin a drop to 102 or so.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance at 137.80 is still stalling the market but any strength above that level will mean that the market will continue up to 140.00

: The 117.50 to 119.00 is strong support in the yen and I think a low will form there and be follwed by a move to 130.

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: Resistance today is again 76.90 and I am guessing that crude oil will stall there. I think the next substantial move from here will be downward to the 66.00 level. XLE has reached 76 and OIH has reached 190 and both should turn down. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.

GLD - August Gold: I will stick with my 695 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 650 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.

SLV - September Silver
: Weakness below 1250 in the futures will convince me that an extended drop has started. Meantime I shall stick with my1370 upside target. SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120.

Google: I think the market will hold support near 497. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Carl, I very much enjoy reading your blog. Allow me to take this opportunity to enquire if, as you expect, the 10-year Treasury Note sinks to 102 in price, it also implies Treasury yield to be some 80bps higher than what it is now, meaning around 5.60% level. Are these your thoughts?