Friday, July 06, 2007

Guesstimates on July 6, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: Upside targets are 1570 for the S&P’s and 155.50 for the Spiders. Support in the S&P’s is 1523 and in the Spiders is 151.00.

QQQQ: The Q’s have reached 48.70. I still think the trend is upward and the next target is 50.00. Support stands at 47.50.

TLT - September Bonds
: The bonds didn’t hold support at 106-20 and now are headed a point lower to 105-20. I still think the market will rally to 108-20 and higher once this reaction is complete. Support in TLT is at 83.00 and the next rally should carry it to 86.50.

September 10 Year Notes: Support is now at 104-16 and the next upside target for the notes is still 106-16. I think the market will rally at least 3 or 4 points from its low at 103-21.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is stalling near its last top at 136.80. I think that the market will eventually drop to 125 or lower before it goes as high as 138.

Dollar-Yen: Next upside target for the yen is 125.50. Support is at 122.30. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude
: Crude has broken above its important 70.00 resistance level so I think it is now heading up to 76.20. If I am right about this XLE should rally further to 76 and OIH should hit 190. USO should move up to 56.50.

GLD - August Gold
: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. August gold should hold resistance at 665 and drop below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV is on its way below 120. July silver should stall at resistance near 1295 and is headed below the 1200 level.

: I think Google is headed for 564. Support now is at 525. Next upside target is 552.


Unknown said...


The Economist cover: fits with your continued call for higher prices through the fall.


Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,
given that your post on 10y US yield (15th june: "I think that over the next few weeks the yield on the 10 year US treasury note will drop to 5.00% or so. Then I think we shall see another rally in yields that will take the market to the 5.50% level.") is working pretty well, I was wondering why u still think that another drop below that 5% could be in the cards.


Anonymous said...

First great blog!
You see euro at 1.25, you see jpy at 130, where do you see the top in euro/jpy?
Please answer.

Gary said...

The COT report for Gold last week was extremely bullish. In the past this has always come at or very near bottoms. This is not the time to press the downside in gold. This is the time to be big buyers. That is how the big money is made. Buying the corrections in secular bull markets.

gary said...

What is the outlook for private equity FIG?