Friday, July 27, 2007

Guesstimates on July 27, 9:00 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: I think the S&P’s will find support in the 1465-70 zone and the Spiders near 146.00. Meantime resistance is at 1505 in the futures and 149.80 in the Spiders. Once the break is over I shall be expecting a move to 1596 and 158.50 respectively.

QQQQ: Support is at 47.60. Next upside target is 53.00.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds should soon begin and extended drop to 103 or so. The 110-00 level is strong resistance. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.

September 10 Year Notes
: The notes have strong resistance at 107-24 and should soon begin a drop to 102 or so.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance at 137.80 is still stalling the market but any strength above that level will mean that the market will continue up to 140.00

Dollar-Yen: The market broke below 119.80 yesterday but I don’t think this means much. Secondary support is at 118.80. Next upside target for the yen is 125.50. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: Resistance today is at 76.90 and I am guessing that crude oil will stall there. I think the next substantial move from here will be downward to the 66.00 level. XLE has reached 76 and OIH has reached 190 and both should turn down. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.

GLD - August Gold: I will stick with my 695 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 650 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.

SLV - September Silver: Weakness below 1250 in the futures will convince me that an extended drop has started. Meantime I shall stick with my1370 upside target. SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120.

Google: I think the market will next find support near 497 and then resume its rally. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.


Anonymous said...

Carl please tell us what use your predictions have if you must correct them (after the fact)more than 50% of the time. You are bullish... what is the point to predict corrections which most of the time you have to change anyway because the market moves differently.

MS said...

It's at inflection points in the markets that the models fail. After a five year bull run, the mkt is faltering badly with liquidity drying up, as some reports, and companies (Cadbury, GM, Chrysler etc.) actions by withdrawing their offerings or the buyers turning tail suggest.
The next obvious support is the 200 DMA for SPX. Monday could be very eventful if today closes down deep in the red.