Monday, July 02, 2007

Guesstimates on July 2, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: I think the low for the drop from the June 1 top in the S&P’s occurred last Wednesday at 1492. Next upside targets are 1570 for the S&P’s and 155.50 for the Spiders. Support in the S&P’s is 1503 and in the Spiders is 149.00.

QQQQ: I think the Q’s are on the way to 48.70.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds should rally to the next upside target at 108-20. I think the bond market has made an important low and is in the early stages of a multi-week rally of at least 5 points. TLT should move to 86.50.

September 10 Year Notes: The notes should rally to 106-16. I think the market has established an important low from which it will rally several weeks and at least 3 or 4 points.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is heading back to its last top at 136.80. I think that the market will eventually drop to 125 or lower before it goes as high as 138.

Dollar-Yen: Next upside target for the yen is 125.50. Support is at 122.30. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude: I still think this sector is making an important top. Resistance in XLE is now at 71 and in OIH is at 177. The next significant move in both will be downward. USO should drop to 45 or lower. August crude should bounce off of resistance at 70.00 and then head down to 55.00 and eventually lower than that.

GLD - August Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. August gold should hold resistance at 696 and drop below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV is on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.

: I think Google is headed for 564. Support now is at 512. Next upside target is 552.


Aurelien said...

Hey Carl,

I was wondering if you might comment on BIDU and their crazy run-up. I bet you didn't expect them to reach your 195 price target in a week!

Im thinking that the 190-195 level could be a short term peak.

Anonymous said...

Hello. I am new to this site. How do you come up with those guess-estimates, and how can I judge the value of your projections? Dont deny your academic predigree, but as I know from my own background, this doesnt really enure success in speculating.