Wednesday, September 09, 2009

Bought second unit at 1028.00


Yobaby said...


The buys look like the right thing to do; the market internals and volume are lacking.
Is it wise to move up protective stops when the market is lacking follow through?

Ziad said...

Hi Carl,

Good read on the markets, but what doesn't make sense to me is how you are managing positions. You had very high conviction that the low would be somewhere in the 990's with an initial profit target of about 60 points, and yet you were not willing to tolerate any heat and thus kept bailing out and repurchasing higher. Instead of being in near the low, which you called correctly, you are now in when the potential move is half-way over. It doesn't make sense why you wouldn't be willing to sit through heat near your projected bottom, and thus miss most of the move up.

I've found that when my conviction is high and trade location is good, getting the trade on is the priority... not trying to time the exact bottom or top.


Carl Futia said...


You have to remember that I am posting trades on a public blog that is followed by many, many amateurs. Consequently the trades I post are only what I see as very low risk trades - the ones that won't get inexperienced people into trouble.

For my own account I do blog trades plus other trades that reflect my convictions about upcoming swings. In the case you cite I was long at 996 and added at 1002 and am still long that part of my position.

What you see on my blog is only a part of my trading activity.

Anonymous said...

To me at least, the move up from 991 looked initially like a correction to an earlier move down, and that too at high volume. But, Carl, you were pretty sure of it being a new leg up.

Carl, your proven ability to distinguish between a correction and a move is mind boggling. I was wondering if you could throw some light on what it that made you so sure. Thanks in anticipation of your answer on this crucial point, which separates winners from losers!

andi said...

kishore, don't be so impressionable..last 6 months anyone w/ long bias has been a savant..
ben bernanke would soon be slapped into reality...