Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Guesstimates on September 22, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1055-1070. I still think the e-minis will be trading in a range between 1035 and 1075 for the next few days. After this consolidation period ends the market will begin a move to the 1120 level.

QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Support is at 4.20%. I think a swing to above the 5.00% level is underway.

TNX (ten year note yield): Support is at 3.25%. I think a swing up to 4.30% is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the market will continue upward to 148.50.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has started a move up to 105.00.

November Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.

GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 970.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Support is at 420. Next upside target is 500.


Unknown said...

What does the contrarian mind say about James Grant turning bullish? I find it scarey!

Anonymous said...

Carl: Are you not publishing trades this week, or are you sitting on the sidelines for now?

Teich said...

I think Carl publishes only trades that he considers to be "safe".

Ker said...

Carl, i am curious how did you came up with 1070 number in gold. It happens that it is close to my top target projected by channel lines from the high in january 1980 and lows in 2001

Anonymous said...

Carl has told us earlier that he is aware of the inexperience of many visitors to his site. Therefore, he probably does not publish all his trades because others may not be able to manage a bad trade as well as he does.

Moreover, many traders do not short a bull market. Maybe, that's why Carl stays on the side lines during pullbacks?? Is that right, Carl?

admin said...

Kishore, what pullback? Pullbacks are only happening in the dreams.

Anonymous said...

vinaydh, you are absolutely right. I read your blog. I agree we are shooting for recovery of almost all of the fall, during fall of 2008, at least for QQQQ. Thanks to monetization of debt, and fall of $, we will all soon be millionaires!

As it is, the debt liability of every man, woman and child, will soon approach a million dollars. Thanks to Ben Bernanke and Timmy!

Yesterday, the UK PM issued a statement that the forthcoming stimulus packages will dwarf the ones hitherto. The whole world is now upside down, including the charts!

Urban Carmel said...


Overall market volume in September has been about a fair bit below the June-August period (which was in turn below the period last spring). What is your interpretation of this, given the importance of volume to confirm a price trend?

Many thanks for a terrific blog,

andi said...

carl has been amazingly right on the money..on goog, eur.usd. SPX he was adamant on july 6 th sell off that it was headed to 954 or so (man if only i followed that advice , all my yearly gain evaporated in jul/aug and now i am sitting w/ losses)
kudos to carl.