Wednesday, September 09, 2009

A comment exchange with Ziad

I want to bring to you attention an exchange of comments I just had with Ziad:

Blogger Ziad said...

Hi Carl,

Good read on the markets, but what doesn't make sense to me is how you are managing positions. You had very high conviction that the low would be somewhere in the 990's with an initial profit target of about 60 points, and yet you were not willing to tolerate any heat and thus kept bailing out and repurchasing higher. Instead of being in near the low, which you called correctly, you are now in when the potential move is half-way over. It doesn't make sense why you wouldn't be willing to sit through heat near your projected bottom, and thus miss most of the move up.

I've found that when my conviction is high and trade location is good, getting the trade on is the priority... not trying to time the exact bottom or top.


9/09/2009 11:29:00 AM

Blogger Carl Futia said...


You have to remember that I am posting trades on a public blog that is followed by many, many amateurs. Consequently the trades I post are only those I see as very low risk trades - the ones that won't get inexperienced people into trouble.

For my own account I do blog trades plus other trades that reflect my convictions about upcoming swings. In the case you cite I was long at 996 and added at 1002 and am still long that part of my position.

What you see on my blog is only a part of my trading activity.

9/09/2009 11:36:00 AM


Tim- said...


are you long GOOG? do you trade around it or do you own in an ira?

Ziad said...

Thanks for the clarification Carl. That makes more sense now!! :)

Also, some dialogue about how you personally distinguish between a new leg and a retracement would be interesting. I think there's many ways to do it, and for me it's always about the larger context, but I'm always interested to hear how others trade.



Unknown said...

I am an amateur and very much appreciate your regular postings and also this clarification - thanks for taking the time to share your insights

Win said...


Thanks. It is great to see that in posting your trades, you are actually thinking about the hundreds of amateurs who follow your blog. You've just gone up another half mile in my estimation.

kcounty said... only post your conservative trades because there are 'amateurs' reading? I am grateful for your posting, but as far as for your 'altruistic' approach - that is strange. CNBC posts 'buys' that are complete BS that take rookies down all the time. sure would like to see ALL your trades!!!

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