Monday, September 28, 2009

Guesstimates on September 28, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1040-1055. The e-minis dropped as low as 1035.75 in electronic trading last night and I think there is a good chance that the drop from 1075 is complete. In any case I expect a move to 1120 to begin this week.

QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Support is at 4.05%. I think a swing to above the 5.00% level is underway.

TNX (ten year note yield): Support is at 3.25%. I think a swing up to 4.30% is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: The market nearly hit the 148.50 target. I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

November Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.

GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 970.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Upside target at 500 has been reached. Support is at 450. Next upside target is 550.


andi said...

i think market upside is limited to just one more week (if the peak is not already in)
Do bears get ready and trick is short the rally from now on to quite some time..
i see many clamoring for 1100+ (and dow 10000) and you know what would market do

bokchoy said...

Carl, thx for the update. Have a question for you, if you think USD would strengthen against Euro, how the market can go up. thx.

siricor said...


As always, thank you for your input! Your 'guesstimates' are greatly appreciated!

Teich said...

I hope we found the bottom at ES ~1035. However, the Nikkei broke down last night after consolidating between 10,200 and 10,600. It is currently testing 10,000; it will look ominous if it fails the support there tonight.

Unknown said...

Hi Carl,

Could you please explain how do you derive the daily range estimates?



Carl Futia said...


No offense, but why do you think you are entitled to an explanation?

Unknown said...


first, it's up to you. I am interested to know how you do it with a great success.



FH said...

Will you sell the explanation? I haven't finished your book, but I expect it is not therre.

Anonymous said...

It appears that we have not yet seen the high of the day. It looks like a trend day and it may go a lot higher than ES @ 1057.

But then, most often, the market does the opposite of what I think!

So, maybe, we will see the lows again and fill the unfilled gap at the open. Actually, I am quite surprised that the gap, being rather small, was not filled right after the open.