Monday, September 14, 2009

Late Update

Here is a 60 minute bar chart of day session e-mini trading. The market proved to be stronger today than I initially expected. Even so, its rally from the early morning low was quite subdued and showed little volatility. Since we are approaching the top of the current trend channel (green dash lines) as well as midpoint resistance at 1054 (horizontal red dash line) I think the market is telling us that a break of 30-40 points will probably begin from a short term top later this week.

Any such break should hold midpoint support near 1011 (purple dotted line) as well as the lower boundary of the current trend channel. I still think we will see the market reach 1050 or a little higher before this break starts.


Unknown said...

Awesome trade today Carl. I see you usually don't short during a down leg in an up-trend move. Given you are estimating this to be a 30-40 point break, I wonder if you would short this time around when the market takes a breather from the move-up.


dcatlowpj said...

Caught me by surprise as well, Carl...I went long twice and short once for a net loss. I had to log out but would have loved a little more upside later...We are moving from our home....had to split.

sandy allred said...

I think this break will be a little more than you are expecting Carl. We could very well revisit the late April lows before a fall rally can begin.

dcatlowpj said...

Observing your chart, it looks like a bullish wedge has formed as well.