Friday, September 25, 2009

Guesstimates on September 25, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1035-1050. I expect the e-minis to hold support near 1035 and spend the next few sessions trading sideways before a rally to 1120 begins.

QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Support is at 4.20%. I think a swing to above the 5.00% level is underway.

TNX (ten year note yield): Support is at 3.25%. I think a swing up to 4.30% is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: The market nearly hit the 148.50 target. I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has started a move up to 105.00.

November Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.

GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 970.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Upside target at 500 has been reached. Support is at 450. Next upside target is 550.


extrader said...


I am curious why u didnt go short on ur blog when u called the PERFECT roadmap for this latest drop?


Unknown said...

OK - I can't let the EUR-USD pass ... any comments on why the drop here? I don't disagree from a macroeconomic standpoint, but that takes 2-4 years to playout. I expect the GBP and USD to outperform the EUR through then ... what is the timing for your 120 target?

Great book BTW!

Anonymous said...

The Fed opacity has been instrumental in manipulating the market to the upside.

I was wondering what long-term effect the passage of Bill 1407, to make Fed transparent, will have on the market??

Anonymous said...

The trend indicators on weekly and daily charts are all in favor of continuation of the bull market.

It will take a lot more selling to make a dent in the larger prevailing up trend.

Personally, having being dealt a severe blows by the up trend, for going against the trend, I would not go short in this market until the weekly trend indicators turn negative.

It is easy to get get caught against the market trend, while taking short-term day trades.

Why ASSume this stupid market! The market is very good at making an ass out of us!

Anonymous said...

As Carl, the professor, would say, "Never assume. It makes an ass out of u and me!" Right, Professor Carl?

catherine said...

i agree with you on the eur usd.However by implication,such a forecast also suggests we will probably be getting near the high in the spx rally and will perhaps test the lows again in 2010.

andi said...

as per carl the sage, i covered all my shorts at 1037 ES here..and bought some ES...

Anonymous said...

andi, unquestionably, Carl is a Sage, a Guru!

Nevertheless, the truth is that you take your own trades and are solely responsible for the consequences, good or bad. Hopefully, good!

CautiousTrader said...

When will you update your forecast for 30 yr bond since it has breached 4.2 pretty seriously (at least so it seems to me)