Wednesday, June 13, 2007

Guesstimates on June 13, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: I think the Spiders and S&P’s have begun another downward move which will carry both close to last week’s lows or below. My downside target for the correction which began at the June 1 top is 145.50 in the Spiders and 1470 in the futures. I am expecting new highs for the bull market later this month and in July.

QQQQ: The Q’s have bounced off of resistance near 47.20 and have begun a drop to 45.50.

TLT - September Bonds
: Earlier this morning the bonds hit 104-16, a little below my 104-24 target. I think the bond market has probably made an important low and is about to being a multi-week rally of at least 5 points. TLT dropped lower than I expected but the 81.50 level is very strong support and I think a sustained rally is about to start.

September 10 Year Notes
: The notes hit 103-20 earlier this morning, a tad shy of my 103-16 target. I think the market is establishing a low and will rally several weeks from here and at least 3 or 4 points.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has broken support at 133.30 and is now headed down to 130.00. I think that the market will eventually drop to 125 or lower.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 123.50. Support is at 121.10. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – July Crude: I think XLE is making a top near 69 and that OIH is making its top near 173. The next significant move in both will be downward. USO should drop to 45 or lower after bouncing off of 50.60 resistance. July crude has completed a rally phase and is now headed down to 55.00 and eventually lower than that.

GLD - August Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. August gold should hold resistance at 696 and drop below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV is on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Google should hold support near 500. Next upside target is 535.

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