Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Guesstimates on June 20, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: The S&P’s have so far held 1540 support and this suggests that the market will reach the 1570 level before any significant reaction develops. Spiders should rally to 155.50 at the same time. Weakness in the S&P’s below 1540 will convince me that the futures are heading for 1520 where they have a good chance of making a second higher low. The corresponding levels in the Spiders are 152.50 and 150.75.

QQQQ: Support is at 47.20. I am raising the short term target a bit to 48.70

TLT - September Bonds: Short term resistance is at 107-20 and support is at 106-20. I think the bond market has made an important low and is in the early stages of a multi-week rally of at least 5 points. TLT is headed for 86.50.

September 10 Year Notes: Short term resistance is at 105-18. I think the market has established an important low and will rally several weeks there and at least 3 or 4 points.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance today is at 134.50. Next downside target is 131.30. I think that the market will eventually drop to 125 or lower.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has reached resistance at 123.50. Support is still at 121.10. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude: I still think this sector is making an important top. Resistance in XLE is now at 71 and in OIH is at 177. The next significant move in both will be downward. USO should drop to 45 or lower after bouncing off of 51.40 resistance. July crude has completed a rally phase and is now headed down to 55.00 and eventually lower than that.

GLD - August Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. August gold should hold resistance at 696 and drop below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV is on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Google should hold support near 500. Next upside target is 535.

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