Thursday, June 21, 2007

Guesstimates on June 21, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: The S&P’s reached support at 1522 this morning and at this point I think the market will stabilize and begin a rally to new highs. The Spiders have support at 150.70.

QQQQ: Support is at 47.10. I am raising the short term target a bit to 48.70

TLT - September Bonds: Short term resistance is at 107-20 and support is at 106-04. I think the bond market has made an important low and is in the early stages of a multi-week rally of at least 5 points. TLT is headed for 86.50.

September 10 Year Notes
: Short term resistance is at 105-18. I think the market has established an important low and will rally several weeks there and at least 3 or 4 points.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance today is still at 134.50. Next downside target is 131.30. I think that the market will eventually drop to 125 or lower.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has reached resistance at 123.50. Support is still at 121.10. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude: I still think this sector is making an important top. Resistance in XLE is now at 71 and in OIH is at 177. The next significant move in both will be downward. USO should drop to 45 or lower after bouncing off of 51.40 resistance. August crude should bounce off of resistance at 70.00 and then head down to 55.00 and eventually lower than that.

GLD - August Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. August gold should hold resistance at 696 and drop below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV is on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Google should hold support near 500. Next upside target is 535.


Anonymous said...

carl, do you really think SPY will it to 155.50; i think it will stop aroudn 152-153..and then continue its move my opinion.

do you think the top you were expecting in july could be here in late june?


Anonymous said...

My last comment was disrespectful to the author of this blog, and that was not the intention and I'm sorry.

The point I wanted to make was that being good at maths with phd's etc and trading have nothing to do with each other, if they did all the university maths professors would be trading millionaires, and they aren't.

On the other hand I know of traders that barely graduated fron high school, and make millions in the market.

Readers of this blog should just be aware of that.

Anonymous said...

Now a quiz for you, what is the common among, George Soros, Icahn, Bill Miller. The first two are billionaire. The last one beats S&P in 15 years, 1 in million chance. The answer is:
They are all PhD. Do you know what subject PhD, they are all Phd in Philosophy.

Anonymous said...

In the book Liars Poker, William Simon waves his hand over the trading room at Solomon Bros & says (paraphrasing) if these guys weren't traders they'd be driving taxis (because so many were under-educated). I believe that scene happened in the 60's or 70's at the height of Solly's profitablity.

I received a Solly annual report in 1988 where they boasted about how many PhD's, MBA's, etc that they employed. Within a couple of years Solly was near bankruptcy & needed to bring Buffet on to the board to rescue them.

Anonymous said...

It is not Solly, it is Sally.

The incident is about ethic as Sally traders try to corner the bond market. I was in the arb department, the elite group, we had mixed types: Phds, not PhDs and ex army officers. After the scandle, John left and started long term captial. Sugar ( a legendary Japanese future trader ) took over the Arb group, after merge, Costa ( a Greek guy ) took over in 1999, he bet huge on the yield converge trades, then lost billions due to Russia crisis, ...

Anonymous said...

If one Googles "Salomon Brothers" & "Solly" there are plenty of references to "Solly" e.g. "Salomon Bros. (or ``Solly,'' as it's known on Wall Street)" but none if you Google "Sally".

JakeGint said...

That's because it sounds like "Solly" but it's spelled "Sally" -- especially by it's employees.