Friday, June 15, 2007

Guesstimates on June 15, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: The positive response to the CPI number this morning sent the futures well over yesterday’s 1542 high, so I now think the market is headed for 1568. The Spiders should reach the 155.50 level.

QQQQ: It now looks like the Q’s are on the way to new bull market highs. Upside target is 48.30.

TLT - September Bonds: I think the bond market has probably made an important low and is about to being a multi-week rally of at least 5 points. TLT dropped lower than I expected but the 81.50 level is very strong support and I think a sustained rally is about to start.

September 10 Year Notes: I think the market is establishing a low and will rally several weeks from here and at least 3 or 4 points.

Euro-US Dollar
: The euro has broken support at 133.30 and is now headed down to 130.00. I think that the market will eventually drop to 125 or lower.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has reached resistance at 123.50. Support is still at 121.10. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – July Crude: I still think this sector is making an important top. Resistance in XLE is now at 71 and in OIH is at 177. The next significant move in both will be downward. USO should drop to 45 or lower after bouncing off of 50.60 resistance. July crude has completed a rally phase and is now headed down to 55.00 and eventually lower than that.

GLD - August Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. August gold should hold resistance at 696 and drop below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV is on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Google should hold support near 500. Next upside target is 535.


Ken said...

Thanks for your excellent predictions on the USDJPY- cashed out today @123.50

Anonymous said...

Dear Carl, In your recent June 9th update on the DOW Domed House, you mentioned Point 22 corresponds to approx. Low of 13000.

Since the DOW reached a Low of 13207, and turned up today, would you consider Point 22 has already been reached and we are heading to the final Point 23 now ?

Or Do we go back to Point 13000 range corresponding to Point 22 ?


Anonymous said...

no offense but the news does not
stop the or start the market from
where it is already going .

The positive response to the CPI number this morning sent the futures well over yesterday’s 1542 high
this is a false statement . i could easily have said that the release of paris hilton from jail
the other day rallied the market
and her return to jail crashed the market .what is driving this market up right now is the end of quarter window dressing and what is typical of the trends into end of quarter and into fed meetings
the news is just a trigger and an excuse . they would have both the mkt anyway .

Anonymous said...

For 10-year Treasury futures to rally 3-4 points means yield has to drop by 45-60 basis points but you indicate in your latest post that you expect yield to decline to 5.00% before moving up again. Could you pls explain the apparent discrepancy?