Monday, June 18, 2007

Guesstimates on June 18, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: The S&P’s are headed for 1570 and the Spiders for 155.50.

QQQQ: It now looks like the Q’s are on the way to new bull market highs. Upside target is 48.30.

TLT - September Bonds: Short term resistance is at 106-20. I think the bond market has probably made an important low and is about to being a multi-week rally of at least 5 points. TLT dropped lower than I expected but the 81.50 level is very strong support and I think a sustained rally is about to start.

September 10 Year Notes: Short term resistance is at 105-00. I think the market is establishing a low and will rally several weeks from here and at least 3 or 4 points.

Euro-US Dollar
: Resistance today is at 134.50. Next downside target is 131.30. I think that the market will eventually drop to 125 or lower.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has reached resistance at 123.50. Support is still at 121.10. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – July Crude: I still think this sector is making an important top. Resistance in XLE is now at 71 and in OIH is at 177. The next significant move in both will be downward. USO should drop to 45 or lower after bouncing off of 51.40 resistance. July crude has completed a rally phase and is now headed down to 55.00 and eventually lower than that.

GLD - August Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. August gold should hold resistance at 696 and drop below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV is on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Google should hold support near 500. Next upside target is 535.


Anonymous said...


what is your ultimate target on SPY on S&P before we top out in July as you have expressed in your posts? and after we top out in july, do you think we would still make new highs after a correction?

Will Rahal said...

Hi Carl,
I will be posting my 5-Day momentum chart more frequently.
You may find it complementary to your work.

Anonymous said...

It constantly amazes me when people ask you the simplest of questions that are easily understood if they bothered to read your "Dome" writings which aren't that difficult to understand.

Do "you" expect to be spoonfed ?

Gary said...

I'm wondering why you keep predicting a decline in oil. Everytime XLE or OIH make a new high you just move the top of your range up a bit and then predict another top. Oil just broke out of a 2 1/2 month consolidation. I personally wouldn't be betting against oil. The COT report for gold just had a huge reduction in shorts. This also typically happens at or close to lows. I wouldn't be betting against the PM either. You might consider adding a bit of fundmentals to your TA.