Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Guesstimates on June 19, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: The S&P’s and Spiders have stalled a little below their June 1 highs for the past two trading days. Generally this kind of action means that the market is about to drop back into the lower third of its recent trading range. Weakness in the S&P’s below 1540 today will convince me that the futures are heading for 1520 where they have a good chance of making a second higher low. The corresponding levels in the Spiders are 152.50 and 150.75. In any case the next up swing will take the S&P’s to 1570 and the Spiders to 155.50.

QQQQ: The Q’s have traded at new bull market highs for the past two days. Support is at 47.20. I am raising the short term target a bit to 48.70

TLT - September Bonds: Short term resistance is at 106-20. I think the bond market has probably made an important low and is about to being a multi-week rally of at least 5 points. TLT dropped lower than I expected but the 81.50 level is very strong support and I think a sustained rally is about to start.

September 10 Year Notes: Short term resistance is at 105-00. I think the market is establishing a low and will rally several weeks from here and at least 3 or 4 points.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance today is at 134.50. Next downside target is 131.30. I think that the market will eventually drop to 125 or lower.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has reached resistance at 123.50. Support is still at 121.10. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – July Crude
: I still think this sector is making an important top. Resistance in XLE is now at 71 and in OIH is at 177. The next significant move in both will be downward. USO should drop to 45 or lower after bouncing off of 51.40 resistance. July crude has completed a rally phase and is now headed down to 55.00 and eventually lower than that.

GLD - August Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. August gold should hold resistance at 696 and drop below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV is on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Google should hold support near 500. Next upside target is 535.


Gary said...

You might want to give up on calling the top in oil for awhile.

Anonymous said...

Gary, what is your problem or what do you want to prove? Do you see Carl's comments on your blog? If you just read more posts on this blog you will see that he is right more times than anybody I know. And there are a lot of people telling him how wrong he is and they never go back when things go his way. And even if he is wrong once or more it doesn't mean he is short oil at the moment.