Thursday, June 28, 2007

Guesstimates on June 28, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: I think the low for the drop from the June 1 top in the S&P’s occurred yesterday. Next upside targets are 1570 for the S&P’s and 155.50 for the Spiders.

QQQQ: I think the Q’s are on the way to 48.70.

TLT - September Bonds: The should hold support near 106-16 and then rally to its next upside target at 108-20. I think the bond market has made an important low and is in the early stages of a multi-week rally of at least 5 points. TLT should move to 86.50.

September 10 Year Notes: The notes should hold support near 105-00 and then rally to 106-16. I think the market has established an important low from which it will rally several weeks and at least 3 or 4 points.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance today is still at 134.50. Next downside target is 131.30. I think that the market will eventually drop to 125 or lower.

Dollar-Yen: Next upside target for the yen is 125.50. Support is at 122.30. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude: I still think this sector is making an important top. Resistance in XLE is now at 71 and in OIH is at 177. The next significant move in both will be downward. USO should drop to 45 or lower after bouncing off of 51.40 resistance. August crude should bounce off of resistance at 70.00 and then head down to 55.00 and eventually lower than that.

GLD - August Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. August gold should hold resistance at 696 and drop below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV is on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.

: I think Google is headed for 564. Support now is at 512. Next upside target is 552.


Anonymous said...

wrong again, maybe 1525 this week but do not let people belief that it is save to assume 1570.
We are going to sell-off below 1490.

Anonymous said...

According to Stock Trader's Almanac, the last day of the second quarter the Dow has been down 11 of the last 15 while the Nasdaq has been up 12 of the past 15 (the first day of July has been bullish). Remember, the 50 day moving average around 1508 in the S&P 500 will remain a key point of contention and the bulls need to reclaim it soon in order to maintain their control.

Anonymous said...

"Remember that good trading is all about managing risk. If you are entering a position without knowing where you are getting out when you're wrong, then you're sunk before you begin."
Little hint to whom it may concern

Anonymous said...

Now that oil has broken $70, is $75 the next level from which we can expect a drop to $55?

Anonymous said...

FOMC days, my favorite days, I get to get my hair cut, and I also get one of the most consistant patterns in all of trading. After the announcement at about 2:15ET, we get three moves. We get an initial move in one direction or the other, we then get a counter move that can be equal to or greater than the first move, we then move back in the direction of the original move. Check it out.

Aurelien said...

It would be great if all you anonymous people actually showed your names!

Anonymous said...

Sorry but we love our privacy

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the Stock Trader's Almanac update. And thanks for the after announcement predicitable moves tip.

Anonymous said...

weak close, with Bonds not helping.
I assume it would be better at the moment to sell rallies instead of buying dips. I still believe we break again the 1500 very soon.

Anonymous said...

Hey Carl,

What is the price differential between Euro-US Dollar futures and EUR/USD spot? Also, how many people check out your blog on a daily basis? Thanks!

Anonymous said...

Todays reaction to the fed release was pretty lackluster and ended up printing some pretty ugly candles on most of the major indices. Most closed as doji�s, but of particular concern are the shooting star type candles that formed as the S&P and Dow tagged their descending 20 day sma�s
These show clear selling at this level and can indicate that the trend is changing. Tomorrow may prove to be a pivotal Friday as many bulls were looking to the Fed release as a potential catalyst. If the mornings economic data fails to inspire some buying, then the bears may try and push the action.
I still think 1500 will fail again.
Sell rallies and do not buy the dips.

Anonymous said...

None of the major indexes look great, but for the moment they've stopped getting any worse either. Despite tomorrow's trifecta of quarter-end, month-end and week-end, it's hard to expect anything other than more choppy action -- but I'm willing to be surprised.

marketmakerX said...

Some of the anonymous guys here are big time idiots. Keep betting against Carl.

Anonymous said...

to marketmakerx

we are always on the side with the higher odds, and as we see today again ... we are right and Futia is wrong