Friday, June 22, 2007

Guesstimates on June 22, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: I think the Spiders and the S&P’s have started a move to new bull market highs. Upside target for the S&P’s is 1570, for the Spiders 155.50.

QQQQ: I think the Q’s are now headed up to 48.70. I am raising the short term target a bit to 48.70

TLT - September Bonds: I expect this swing downwards to halt at a higher low near 105-18. The next swing up should carry the market to 107-20. I think the bond market has made an important low and is in the early stages of a multi-week rally of at least 5 points. TLT should find support near 82.80 and then begin a move to 86.50.

September 10 Year Notes: Support in the notes is at 104-16 and from there the market should rally to 105-18. I think the market has established an important low and will rally several weeks there and at least 3 or 4 points.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance today is still at 134.50. Next downside target is 131.30. I think that the market will eventually drop to 125 or lower.

Dollar-Yen: next upside target for the yen is 125.50. Support is at 122.30. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude: I still think this sector is making an important top. Resistance in XLE is now at 71 and in OIH is at 177. The next significant move in both will be downward. USO should drop to 45 or lower after bouncing off of 51.40 resistance. August crude should bounce off of resistance at 70.00 and then head down to 55.00 and eventually lower than that.

GLD - August Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. August gold should hold resistance at 696 and drop below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV is on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Google should hold support near 500. Next upside target is 535.


Anonymous said...

Private equity companies, which want to take public companies private, are themselves going public. Hmm... Scratch...Hmmm... Blackstone $40bn IPO today. KKR next. Market top definitely near then. :)

Anonymous said...

Carl, please explain how you calculate the QQQQ target of $48.7... is this using fibs?