Monday, June 25, 2007

Guesstimates on June 25, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: Support in the Spiders is at 149.50 and in the S&P’s it is at 1510. From those levels I think both markets will start a move to new bull market highs. Upside target for the S&P’s is 1570, for the Spiders 155.50.

QQQQ: I think the Q’s will hold support at 47.10 and then move up to 48.70.

TLT - September Bonds
: The market is headed for 107-20 and eventually higher than that. Support is at 105-18. I think the bond market has made an important low and is in the early stages of a multi-week rally of at least 5 points. TLT should hold support near 82.80 and then move to 86.50.

September 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed for 105-18. I think the market has established an important low and will rally several weeks there and at least 3 or 4 points.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance today is still at 134.50. Next downside target is 131.30. I think that the market will eventually drop to 125 or lower.

Dollar-Yen: next upside target for the yen is 125.50. Support is at 122.30. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude: I still think this sector is making an important top. Resistance in XLE is now at 71 and in OIH is at 177. The next significant move in both will be downward. USO should drop to 45 or lower after bouncing off of 51.40 resistance. August crude should bounce off of resistance at 70.00 and then head down to 55.00 and eventually lower than that.

GLD - August Gold
: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. August gold should hold resistance at 696 and drop below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV is on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Google should hold support near 500. Next upside target is 535.


Anonymous said...


At your first opportunity, would you please provide an update on the George Lindsay Three Peaks and Domed House pattern--as well as your opinion as to when points 23 & 25 will occur.

I hope you are correct in that the market will hold near 1495 (cash market) and rally back above 1540 (cash).


Will Rahal said...

The 5-Day momentum indicator that I commented on last week, proved very profitable. It is a great complementary tool to your uncanny ability to pick S&P levels.

Anonymous said...

sometime when you can, would you kindly put up a chart of the long bond showing your expected measured moves? thanks in advance.

Anonymous said...

When you give a target for a stock (eg, Google at 535) does that mean "sell when it hits 535" or do you mean something else?

Anonymous said...

you can forget your bullish targets the Hindenburg Omen is stronger...
We are going lower, much lower.

Anonymous said...

Hmm. Carl, do you think perhaps this is the third peak by any chance? Not to say a couple of misses on your supports are anything major, but I find it curious that you should hold to a bullish longterm position when a lot of short term trendlines have been broken on the broad market indicies.

Anonymous said...

The Hindenburg omen is crap. Folks have identified at least 10 of the last 0 crashes in the last 3 years using this infallible omen.

Anonymous said...

I've been reading this blog now for a 2 month. Like all thing american it is an utter impertinence.