Cash USD-euro

Here is an hourly chart of cash trading in the USD-euro currency pair.

I had thought that the move up from point b would prove to be a three phase correction and end near 120.00. Today's action makes that less likely so now I think that the move up from b is in fact the third phase of a move up from the 118.25 on February 27. If so the swing from b should carry to 121.10.

There is an even more bullish possiblity. The low at 118.35 was almost 200 points above the low of November 15, 2005. This means that the entire rally from that low at 116.39 may still be incomplete. If so the move up from 118.25 on February 27 would be the third upward phase of the move up from 116.30 and as such could reasonably be expected to carry to 125.00 or so.

Which of these two bullish possibilities the market will choose will be determined by its action near the 121 level.