S&P

Here is an updated line chart of the 15 minute bar closes in the June S&P e-mini futures. I last commented on this chart here.

I was looking for a reaction from yesterday's high around 1315 to about 1304 based on the volume reduction we saw yesterday afternoon and upon the fact that the swing up from ff was at the time shorter than the one from dd to ee.

This morning the market opened strong and put in a volume bar bigger than any seen yesterday afternoon, thus indicating renewed strength. The June S&P's eventually made it to a high of 1321.50 at gg but on volume again much lower than seen earlier today. I am again willing to guess that the market will have a reaction comparable in length to the one from b to c on the chart. This would make support the 1309 level.

In any case I expect the market to reach the 1325-28 range in a day or two and to hesitate and /or react once it does. I doubt that we will see more than 25 points on the downside before the futures hit 1350.