Wednesday, March 15, 2006

Google


Here is an updated 15 minute bar chart of Google. I last discussed this chart here.

The rally from the low at point d so far has a three phase look which would in ordinary circumstances be a warning that a drop below d is imminent. However, these are not ordinary circumstances. I think GOOG has absorbed a great deal of negative news over the past few weeks and is only trading a little below the low it reached after the very negative Barrons' story came out. If only for this reason I think this stock in in a bullish postition.

So I am going to guess that the drop from point g will end above point f. There is some technical encouragement for this view. The market made three lows, b, d, and f around the same level prior to its rally to g. The upswing from f to g was longer in time and price than the one from d to e. The reaction from point g has seen a very obvious drop in volume which is consistent with it being a drop within an ongoing up trend.

I think the small rally visible in the char over the past 90 minutes is the middle, upward phase of a three phase drop that will end near 338. From there I would expect a move up that would at least equal the move from f to g. This would make 358 the minimum upside target.

I still think we will see GOOG trade well above 400 within a couple of months.

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