T-bonds

Here is an hourly chart of regular hours trading in the June T-bond futures.

I have been looking for a rally into the 111-24 to 111-28 zone. Instead the market has made new lows for the move down from its January high at 115-05. I am suspicious of this apparent breakout because it occurred just after today's Fed announcement. Moroever, neither the June 10 year note futures nor the September 3 month eurodollar futures accompanied the bonds to new lows for their downmoves. Finally, the bond breakout occurred on what could well be a volume climax bar.

So I am going to go out on another of my limbs and guess that the June T-bonds are going to stage a three phase rally back to the top of their current trading range before any substantial drop from current levels develops.