T-bonds

Here is a 15 minute bar chart showing regular hours trading in the June T-bond futures.

The market has bounced off of 111-16 resistance after a three phase rally which I discussed here and here and here and here .

The intial drop from the 111-19 high is labeled a to b on the chart. Notice how the second downleg, the one starting from c, has already exceeded leg a - b in both extent (price) and duration (time). This is a bearish indication. The second bearish indication is the marked increase in volume which has accompanied the drop from c.

This tells me that the move down from c will break the early March low of 109-30 in electronic trading. The next significant support below that low is near 108-16.