Silver

Here is an hourly chart showing pit trading in May silver futures.

The high volume breakout to new contract highs near point f convinced me that the market would have to rally to 1095 or so before any big break occurred. Today you can see that the market has broken below my estimate of short term support at 1000 on very high volume (not shown).

The swing up from point e to point f was the longest of the upswings in the move up from point a. But now the break from point f is bigger and has lasted longer that any of the breaks prior to point a. This is evidence that the move up from point a is over and that a move down close to point a or even lower has begun. However, I am as yet not completely convinced of this and will wait for the market to test support at 986. If this latter level is broken then I will conclude that a move to 915 and probably lower has started.