Monday, March 19, 2007

Guesstimates on March 19, 8:45 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: I still think the Spiders will rally to 140.50. Support is in the 137.80 to 138.30 zone. After the rally I shall expect a move down to 135. The corresponding number for the June futures are 1415, 1392, and 1360.

QQQQ: The market is headed for resistance at 43.70. I have raised the target for the entire correction to 41.00.

TLT - June Bonds
: TLT is headed up into the 94-95 range. The bonds should hold the112-08 level and then rally to 114-24. Over the next few months the bonds are headed for 120.

June 10 Year Notes: The notes made their low on January 26 and are now headed for 111. Short term support is at 108-08 and the next upside target is 109-18.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is headed for 134.20, a new high for the move up from the 116.39 low. However, I think that the next 500 pips from current levels will be down, not up.

Dollar-Yen: My best guess now is that the entire drop from the 122.18 level will carry the market to 113. Meantime the 118.30 level is resistance. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

OIH - USO - April Crude: OIH should soon drop to 129-130. USO should drop to 45. April crude is headed down to 54.50.

GLD - April Gold: I think that both GLD and April gold have begun an extended decline that will carry gold well below 600. Resistance in the futures is at 665.

May Silver: Silver has begun an extended drop that will carry the market below 1000. Resistance in the futures is at 1336.

Google: Support in Google is at 430. From there a move to 564 will begin.

1 comment:

Will Rahal said...

Day-to-Day indicator for 3/19/07. Probability of SP-500 being up = .56

I would like to share one of my indicators for predicting the direction of the market.
Since I have been tracking it, the success rate is 61%(z-stat=1.86, 301 days)
Success is defined as Prob(up) > .5 and SP closing higher,
or Prob(up) < .5 and SP closing lower. So, todays indicator has an UP bias.

Last week's numbers:

DAY ... P(up)... SP-500
Monday .60 ...... UP
Tuesdy .52 ...... DN
Wensdy .60 ...... UP
Thusdy .65 ...... UP
Friday .38 ...... DN

The following are equidistant levels for the Cash-SP. To trade the futures add the premium.

1404.64
1400.96
1397.28
1393.60
1389.93
1386.25
1382.57
1378.90
1375.22
1371.54
1367.86
1364.19
1360.5