Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Guesstimates on March 27, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: The March 14 low at 136.75 will hold and the market is headed for the 151-53 range over the next few months. Support today is again at 142.50. The corresponding numbers for the June futures are 1510-30 with support at 1434.

QQQQ: The Q’s broke above resistance at 43.70 and this means that the market is on its way into the 47-48 range. Support stands at 43.54.

TLT - June Bonds
: TLT is headed up into the 94-95 range. The bonds have dropped a little below 111-24 but the notes are holding support. For this reason I want to give the bonds a little leeway and am still looking for a rally to 114-24. Over the next few months the bonds are headed for 120.

June 10 Year Notes: The notes made their low on January 26 and are now headed for 111. Short term support is at 108-08 and the next upside target is 109-18.

Euro-US Dollar: I think that the next 500 pips from here will be downward.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has made three consecutive higher lows over the past three weeks and this has convinced me that the 115.14 low on March 5 will hold and that the market is now headed for 123. Meantime the 118.30 level is resistance. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

OIH - USO - May Crude: I think OIH will reach 151-53 before resuming its longer term drop. USO will rally too but only to 52 or so. May crude will rally back to its recent high at 63.75 and then drop to 54.50.

GLD - April Gold: I think that both GLD and April gold have begun an extended decline that will carry gold well below 600. Resistance in the futures is at 665.

May Silver: Silver has begun an extended drop that will carry the market below 1000. The futures have reached 1350 but I think the market will turn lower from here.

Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

http://shortsqueeze.com/index.php?symbol=nyx&submit=Enter

Anonymous said...

Carl, the market chart is ugly. I think it will drop, QQQQ will be below < 43.7 soon.

Keep up good work!

Will Rahal said...

Hi Carl, hope the following is useful:

Probability (3/28) for the SP500 being UP = .45
So, for Wednesday, we have a NEGATIVE bias for the market.


[Yesterday's] action was more damaging than it appears:
Some indices low were below Monday's low.
Large Caps the DJ-Composite(INDU+TRAN +UTIL) is an example.
The Russell-2000 represented the Small-Caps achieving this, and
the ValueLine did its part for 1700 unweighted stocks.

The following are equidistant support\resistance levels for today:

1437.92
1434.23
1430.55
1426.87
1423.19
1419.50
1415.82
1412.14
1408.46