Spiders - June S&P Futures: The Spiders staged a decisive upside breakout from their two week trading range yesterday. This means that the March 14 low at 136.75 will hold and that the market is headed for the 151-53 range over the next few months. Support should be at the 142.00 breakout level. The corresponding numbers for the June futures are 1510-30 with support at 1430.
QQQQ: The Q’s broke above resistance at 43.70 and this means that the market is on its way into the 47-48 range.
TLT - June Bonds: TLT is headed up into the 94-95 range. The bonds should hold the112-08 level and then rally to 114-24. Over the next few months the bonds are headed for 120.
June 10 Year Notes: The notes made their low on January 26 and are now headed for 111. Short term support is at 108-08 and the next upside target is 109-18.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro nearly reached 134.20 resistance this morning and I think that the next 500 pips from here will be downward.
Dollar-Yen: My best guess now is that the entire drop from the 122.18 level will carry the market to 114. Meantime the 118.30 level is resistance. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.
OIH - USO - May Crude: I’ve changed my mind on OIH and now think it will reach 153 before resuming its longer term drop. USO will rally too but only to 52 or so. May crude will rally back to its recent high at 63.75 and then drop to 54.50.
GLD - April Gold: I think that both GLD and April gold have begun an extended decline that will carry gold well below 600. Resistance in the futures is at 665.
May Silver: Silver has begun an extended drop that will carry the market below 1000. The futures have nearly reached 1350 but I think the market will turn lower from here.
Google: Support in Google is at 430. From there a move to 564 will begin.
6 comments:
April gold has now surpassed 667.10 this am, a very bullish sign moving forward. If you have time Carl I would love to see your analysis that leads you to believe GCJ is heading below 600. Thanks!
To move the Advance Decline line today it only takes 1 penny per issue. .01 cent today compared to the 1/8th 12.5 cent move of the past. I think the A/D line used to hold alot more weight when it took actual momentum to move alot of stocks 12.5 cents...
Todays 'one penny' A/D line seems to be just a mirror of the indexes.
Carl - Last May the market had a similar fall from major highs (a three phase affair). Then in June the market made a similar upside move as the one we had yesterday and then ended up re-testing the lows later that month. The A/D line was also behaving similar although it has gone higher this time. What odds do you give the market for a continued rally as opposed to a test of the lows?
Hi Carl,
SHLD looks like it is back on track - would you be able to update it please?
Thanks!
Achal
Anicolici: good observation.
Looking at the QQQs chart only, the odds now are much higher because:
1. Last June the Qs tried twice and failed at the 39 resistance level. What you think of a "similar move" was only a retry to take out the 39 resistance - which failed.
2. The Qs didn't get over the 50 day moving average on the re-try last June.
3. The volume (OBV) didn't make a higher high out of the trading range area on last June's upside move.
Today, the odds are much higher because:
1. The Q's penetrated the resistance level at 43.5. This will be support now.
2. The Qs got over 50 day moving average. This is very significant. The 50 DMA will act now as support as well.
3. The OBV made a higher high getting out of its own trading range.
All in all, much better odds now.
Thanks Steve - that makes sense.
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