Thursday, March 08, 2007

Guesstimates on March 8, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: The market rallied overnight after yesterday’s late break. Today the Spiders should find resistance at 141.00 and from there I think the market will drop to 136.30. The June futures become the active contract today. Resistance in June is at 1420 and the market should soon begin a drop to 1375. There is as yet no sign that the drop from the February 22 top is complete and the 135 level remains my Spider target.

QQQQ: The market hit resistance again near 43.05 late yesterday and I think it will soon drop to 41.00 before another rally starts. Downside target for the entire correction is still 39.50.

TLT - June Bonds: TLT is headed up into the 94-95 range. The bonds should hold support near 112-24 and then rally to 114-16. Over the next few months the bonds are headed for 120.

June 10 Year Notes: The notes made their low on January 26 and are now headed for 111. Short term support is at 108-16 and the next upside target is 109-18.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a drop in the euro to below the 125 level is underway.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has been much weaker than I anticipated. My best guess now is that the entire drop from the 122.18 level will carry the market to 113. Meantime the 117.50 level is resistance. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 in 2007.

OIH - USO - April Crude: OIH should soon drop to 129-130. USO should drop to 45. Resistance in April crude is at 63.30 and from there the market should drop to 55.00.

GLD - April Gold
: I think that both GLD and April gold have begun an extended decline that will carry gold well below 600.

May Silver: Silver has begun an extended drop that will carry the market below 1000.

Google
: Support in Google is at 430. From there a move to 564 will begin.

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