Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Guesstimates on March 21, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: The Spiders have moved above the 140.50 level but I think the market won’t spend much time above 141.50 before it begins a drop to 135.00. The S&P’s will probably take a peek above 1426 and then begin a drop to 1360.

QQQQ: Resistance in the Q’s is still at 43.70 and I expect this market to soon begin a drop to 41.00.

TLT - June Bonds: TLT is headed up into the 94-95 range. The bonds should hold the112-08 level and then rally to 114-24. Over the next few months the bonds are headed for 120.

June 10 Year Notes: The notes made their low on January 26 and are now headed for 111. Short term support is at 108-08 and the next upside target is 109-18.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is headed for 134.20, a new high for the move up from the 116.39 low. However, I think that the next 500 pips from current levels will be down, not up.

Dollar-Yen: My best guess now is that the entire drop from the 122.18 level will carry the market to 114. Meantime the 118.30 level is resistance. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

OIH - USO - May Crude: OIH should soon drop to 129-130. USO should drop to 45. May crude is headed down to 54.50.

GLD - April Gold: I think that both GLD and April gold have begun an extended decline that will carry gold well below 600. Resistance in the futures is at 665.

May Silver: Silver has begun an extended drop that will carry the market below 1000. The futures nearly reached 1350 yesterday but I think an extended drop is about to start.

Google: Support in Google is at 430. From there a move to 564 will begin.

2 comments:

Will Rahal said...

For March 19 - March 23, 2007

Probability (3/21) of the SP500 being UP = .48
So, for Wednesday, we have a DOWN bias for the market.

Tracking this week:

Day _____ P(up) _____ SP500

Monday ___ .56 ________ UP
Tuesday __ .47 ________ DN
Wednsdy __ .48 ________ ?

Anonymous said...

Will Rahal, get your own blog!!!