Spiders - June S&P Futures: The very fast late rally yesterday was put in a wide range up bar and this forces me to abandon my forecast of a drop to 140.60 in the Spiders and 1416 in the S&P’s. Instead I think yesterday’s lows will hold and that the market heading up to new bull market highs from here.
QQQQ: I am giving up on my expectation of a further drop to 42.80 and am now looking for a move up to 46.50.
TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds have decisively broken support and are now headed down to 109 before the bull market resumes.
June 10 Year Notes: The notes broke support yesterday and I now think the market is headed for 105-16 before the bull market resumes.
Euro-US Dollar: I think that the next 500 pips from here will be downward.
Dollar-Yen: The 115.14 low on March 5 will hold and that the market is now headed for 123. Meantime the 118.30 level is resistance. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.
OIH - USO - May Crude: I still think OIH will reach 151-53 before resuming its longer term drop. USO will rallied to 54 yesterday but the next 10 points from here will be downward. May crude has reached resistance at 66.00. I still think the next big move will be downward to 55.00 or so.
GLD - April Gold: I think that both GLD and April gold have begun an extended decline that will carry gold well below 600. Resistance in the futures is still at 665.
May Silver: Silver has resistance today at 1365 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.
Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started.
7 comments:
I think
1. We will see crude oil $70 before we see $55.
2. With all due respect, if you adjust Q's direction almost daily, does the method really work?
take care,
Carl, I'm not trying to be sarcastic, but it seems that you have been consistently been getting whipsawed since early February without adjusting because you have been looking for a trending stock market instead of a non-trending one.
Have you given any thoughts to adjusting ? One reason for keeping a blog trading journal is so one can have a record of their thoughts. I suggest you read your stock market thoughts for the last two months. You have been CONSISTENTLY getting whipsawed.
To anyone who would gloat or take comfort in the remarks above. I made those remarks. Carl is one of the few bloggers who has enough intellectual integrity to print such criticism. Carl, many of us, me included, have learned a lot from you.
I went from 97% stocks to zero stocks Feb, in part, because of your Dome House views. I think what has happened since early Feb still fits the Dome projections. The Dome projections also helped me to call the Weds, March 14 turnaround to a "T" (before the mkt opened).
Carl, often your near term views ignore your OWN short to intermediate term views.
The market is at a very important transitional state and preparing for a large scale bullish move ... so I agree with your outlook longer term. Your daily guesstimates suggest that you probably do not trade these positions as the change of viewpoint is very swift. A great effort and always a pleasure to follow your thoughts!! Take care
Carl, again, love your work, I have learned a lot. The last post (9:58AM by anon) reminded me of similar thoughts I've had about your calls. To what extent to you follow your daily guesstimates as opposed to longer term ones? They have been whipsawing back and forth lately and I'm curious to know how you hanlde it in your trading... P.S. still on track for my next profitable trade to result in a donation to your PayPal account.
Sad to say, "whipsaws" are part of trading. However, I never buy or sell breakouts. Instead I like to fade reactions and the extremes of trading ranges. This way losses are kept very small since entries are made near support or resistance which must hold or I am gone.
I rarely sell short in a bull market. Instead I fade reactions of various sizes depending on the precedents the market has set during the bull market.
between 1-2pm on thursday, both the USO and XLE reached crucial extremes in my work.since then , the OIH and XLE have diverged with USO...my work, based on a different set of tools than mr.futia's, agrees that an important top is at hand...i await the first rally back to see if my shorts remain profitable...
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