Sunday, March 04, 2007

Guesstimate for March 5

I shall be out of my office on Monday, March 5. The March 5 guesstimate you see below was prepared Sunday morning. I shall resume my normal posting schedule on Tuesday. See you then!


Spiders - March S&P Futures: Support today in the S&P’s is again at 1384. I still think that the S&P’s will rally to 1425 before another down leg begins. The Spiders should hold support today at 138.40 and then rally to 142.50.

QQQQ: Support today in the Q’s is at 42.00 and I think this market will rally to 43.80 before turning lower again.

TLT - June Bonds: The lows made on January 26 will hold. TLT is now headed up into the 94-95 range. The bonds should hold support near 112-24 and then rally to 114-16. Over the next few months the bonds are headed for 120.

June 10 Year Notes: I believe the notes made their low on January 26 and are now headed for 111. Short term support is at 108-16 and the next upside target is 109-18.

Euro-US Dollar: The 132.60 level is strong resistance. From there I expect another downleg to start.

Dollar-Yen: Support is 117.00 and the next upside target is 123.60. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 in 2007.

OIH - USO - April Crude: OIH should soon drop to 129-130. USO should drop to 45. Resistance in April crude is at 63.30 and from there the market should drop to 55.00.

GLD - April Gold: I think that both GLD and April gold have begun an extended decline that will carry gold well below 600.

May Silver: Silver has begun an extended drop that will carry the market below 1000.

Google: Support in Google is at 430. From there a move to 564 will begin.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

You hit SHLD right on the nose. Any thoughts as to how far it may fall?

Anonymous said...

hi carl:

i know you have been covering google in your estimates..you used to cover microsoft and ibm too.

wondering if you could start covering them again and may be couple other stocks.

i am looking at AAPL, YHOO, CSCO, BRCM,NYX.
thanks

leon t said...

your comments on gold and silver are coming true. could you explain what led to your conclusions that both would fall back. however ,at the same time that he agrees with the view that gold will decline for the next three months, marc faber, to mention one, is bullish on gold. to the point where he fears government confiscation of the metal. what would signal the next move up for you?.

Anonymous said...

Carl,

Still bullish, I see. I'll wait to buy till you're bearish. You are a perfect contrarian play.

Take care,

Mike

Anonymous said...

google has support at 406 as that is the apex of the previous triangle formed last year .
im wondering if you intend to post
the front page of barrons ?????
this is a major publication and it is STICKING WITH THE BULL